Group thought required about multiple deck games

mathman

Well-Known Member
#1
OK I've been playing this game a long time. I've earned allot, I've lost allot, I've seen allot and there is one thing in 6 and 8 deck shoes I can't quite understand. There is a post up in the card counting forum titled "Are my results normal (or close)?". In that post the author talks about weird occurrences during his last visit where nobody is winning. I know we all have experienced this, it just seems, at times, no one can win. No matter what happens the dealer is able to make hands but you can't nor can anyone else. The count is negative, you hit your 12 and bust, yet the dealer can draw 4 and 5 cards during a positive count. If you have 20 the dealers get 20 or make a 5 card 21. You have 19 and the dealer has 20. You don't get a blackjack for hours but every shoe, no matter what casino you play that night, the dealer has 2 or 3 blackjacks. The little bit that the count does go positive the dealer draws the cards. When these freaky nights come with high counts you always draw an ace or a low card on your doubled 11 and the dealer always has a pat hand. Yet when the dealer shows a 5, he flips a 6 and draws 10 every time. Over and over again no matter where you go. So I ask...Why does this happen? I thought this might be interesting to talk about and obviously it belongs in this section. Some people call it the dealer from hell, others just refer to it as bad variance. However it's not just us, it seems to be happening to every player, ploppie on up at the same time. Who knows maybe we can come up with a real reason why this happens instead of just voodoo. Let's have some fun....JtMM
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#2
Why does this happen?

It's called selective memory.

Don't forget that the advantage in a positive count is SMALL. 1-2% tops. When the count is positive, it doesn't mean there are only tens and aces left. it means there is a slight excess of them compared to random distribution. Conversely, in a negative count, it doesn't mean there are only small cards left.
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#3
21forme said:
Why does this happen?

It's called selective memory.

Don't forget that the advantage in a positive count is SMALL. 1-2% tops. When the count is positive, it doesn't mean there are only tens and aces left. it means there is a slight excess of them compared to random distribution. Conversely, in a negative count, it doesn't mean there are only small cards left.
Now, now, this is meant to be a fun and hopefully a productive post. It is not selective memory and I'm well aware of my advantage and disadvantage. I'm also well aware of how card counting works. In multiple deck games there are times that it seems no one can win ap or not. I think it may be interesting to hear other views on the subject. That is why it is posted here because it is technically a voodoo topic....JtMM

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MoneyPlays

Well-Known Member
#4
Normal Variation

mathman said:
Now, now, this is meant to be a fun and hopefully a productive post. It is not selective memory and I'm well aware of my advantage and disadvantage. I'm also well aware of how card counting works. In multiple deck games there are times that it seems no one can win ap or not. I think it may be interesting to hear other views on the subject. That is why it is posted here because it is technically a voodoo topic....JtMM
There's usually someone at the table who gets all the cards for a period of time, and sometimes it just happens to be the dealer. Sometimes it's the ploppy. And sometimes it's the BS guy or the AP. Or just plain old luck, because the variables are numerous. How the cards ended up after the shuffle, seat position in relation to that particular shuffle and how the other players at the table play their hands. No, not talking about "sacred flow of the cards", just that all those factors will sometimes make it easy for one player, or the dealer, to get the better of it. Sometimes the whole table gets the better of it and sometimes just the dealer. Most of the time it's just back and forth W-L-W-L-L-W, etc. But I do believe there is some selective memory going on for a lot of players, (not saying it's you MM) because the times when something unusual happens always stand out. But this is the stuff that makes blackjack a great game, because you just never know what's going to happen. And just when you thought you'd seen it all....you see something new. :grin:
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#5
MoneyPlays said:
But this is the stuff that makes blackjack a great game, because you just never know what's going to happen. And just when you thought you'd seen it all....you see something new. :grin:
No kidding MP. It never ceases to amaze me. How about the players that play the opposite of basic strategy because they think the card was produced by the casino so the opposite must be the way to win. :laugh:
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#6
mathman said:
Now, now, this is meant to be a fun and hopefully a productive post.
Did I say otherwise?

mathman said:
It is not selective memory and I'm well aware of my advantage and disadvantage. I'm also well aware of how card counting works.
In that case, I'm not sure why you posed the question.

mathman said:
In multiple deck games there are times that it seems no one can win ap or not.
It's called variance. But you already know that since you're well aware of how card counting. works :rolleyes:
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#7
I have to agree with 21 here. I mean, if it's entertaining to discuss this sort of voodoo, then go right ahead, but it's like arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. There is nothing to it.

The more precise term than "selective memory" (which is also correct) is "confirmation bias". It's extremely common, and can easily delude the best of us unless we're very careful. It also forms the foundation of just about every voodoo system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

More interesting, mathman, is not your question "why does this happen", but rather, "why do people so often perceive that this happens", or "why is our memory biased to remember this sort of thing?"
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#8
Take a deep breath folks!

Come on guys, lighten up a little. I'm not asking for help or guidance and I'm not suggesting this is any more than negative variance. I can't believe that nobody here hasn't witnessed times when it seemed no one could win. Then after being exposed to that themselves walked away wondering if there was something different they could have done to improve what just happened. Gimme a break. Lighten up and have some fun with this thought. Tell some stories of when it happened to you etc. At the very least it may help newer players to understand why this happens to them...JtMM

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bjtocki

Well-Known Member
#9
I had this experience only once. I just don't see anybody winning that day, my tables and all other tables. What bugs me is that I played heads up with a dealer, while I was losing 5 consecutive hands mostly pat and when I had 14 vs 9 I hit it, but the dealer was hesitating to give me the card, so I stood, guess what, he busted (probably felt sorry for me? or just playing with me?).

My partner who is also an AP told me that he played with that same dealer, but told me he is a mechanic (that's why I played head up with that dealer just to confirm his claim and it was true because the dealer also hesitated to give certain cards while he was playing, so he won't bust).

So I was back counting table by table... only two out of 30 table is normal, the all other tables were just wiping out all the players because the dealers were making 20s and 21s a lot and they don't seem to shuffling throughly after each shoe.

BTW, the pit bosses and dealers looked very tense, not chatting with the players at all which is very unnatural because they always did on other days joking around and were very friendly all the time. FYI, this happened in Thursday 1 week before the casino was filing for Chapter 11 and it is one of Atlantic City's joint. Go figure.
 
#10
21

21forme said:
Why does this happen?

It's called selective memory.

Don't forget that the advantage in a positive count is SMALL. 1-2% tops. When the count is positive, it doesn't mean there are only tens and aces left. it means there is a slight excess of them compared to random distribution. Conversely, in a negative count, it doesn't mean there are only small cards left.
When you play the right game with the right skillz 1-2% is far from tops.

CP
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#11
Contact Katweezel immediately or sooner, he deals in this kind of stuff

Sometimes the table needs a professional Flow adjustment done, on rare occassions the whole casino needs this.

It is an anti cooler device, but being a device it may land you in jail.

ihate17
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#12
mathman said:
Come on guys, lighten up a little. I'm not asking for help or guidance and I'm not suggesting this is any more than negative variance. I can't believe that nobody here hasn't witnessed times when it seemed no one could win. Then after being exposed to that themselves walked away wondering if there was something different they could have done to improve what just happened. Gimme a break. Lighten up and have some fun with this thought. Tell some stories of when it happened to you etc. At the very least it may help newer players to understand why this happens to them...JtMM

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ok mathman! hardy har har, lol.:) it's happened to me plenty of times and every time it does it seems impossibly unreal.:confused::whip:
but let us take a breather and maybe consider this point JD is making on the confirmation bias stuff.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=132860&postcount=7
imho, this confirmation bias stuff and the like about how we can fool ourselves into thinking we know things that we don't really know is some heavy duty stuff for folks like us who are dealing with uncertainty on a regular basis. and really not for just these extreme sort of situations your referring but the less severe as well.
like hey maybe let's fess up here and realize just how really clueless we are when just card counting. what do we really know? maybe the true count and the implication by mathematical degrees far as advantage goes and the looming by mathematical degrees of standard deviation lurking amongst the things going on behind our backs.:eek:
but maybe knowing that stuff it becomes a bit difficult for us to realize that hey, right now, tonight, this session we are playing for a few hours or so, that jus about anything can happen and will happen.
i think it was Mr. Renzey in his book who explained how "you can always lose", lmao.
and what do we know about when we have the advantage? something like how we are still going to lose just about as many hands as when we don't, lmao. so heck maybe last night we had a nice blackjack with a big bet out or a nice double down or split followed by double downs with money out and won. easy to forget those were just a few hands of making some nice juicy money, when the next night we just seem to lose hand after hand and even our big bets. but the point is that how we make money card counting is so shrouded from our normal realization and consciousness. just really snappers, double downs and insurance bets and the leveling the playing field that basic strategy affords us is how we tend to come out on top, but again the point is that normal realization and consciousness doesn't so easily recognize that fact when the sh!t is hitting the fan. :rolleyes:
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#13
Shoe from hell

mathman said:
OK I've been playing this game a long time. I've earned allot, I've lost allot, I've seen allot and there is one thing in 6 and 8 deck shoes I can't quite understand. There is a post up in the card counting forum titled "Are my results normal (or close)?". In that post the author talks about weird occurrences during his last visit where nobody is winning. I know we all have experienced this, it just seems, at times, no one can win. No matter what happens the dealer is able to make hands but you can't nor can anyone else. The count is negative, you hit your 12 and bust, yet the dealer can draw 4 and 5 cards during a positive count. If you have 20 the dealers get 20 or make a 5 card 21. You have 19 and the dealer has 20. You don't get a blackjack for hours but every shoe, no matter what casino you play that night, the dealer has 2 or 3 blackjacks. The little bit that the count does go positive the dealer draws the cards. When these freaky nights come with high counts you always draw an ace or a low card on your doubled 11 and the dealer always has a pat hand. Yet when the dealer shows a 5, he flips a 6 and draws 10 every time. Over and over again no matter where you go. So I ask...Why does this happen? I thought this might be interesting to talk about and obviously it belongs in this section. Some people call it the dealer from hell, others just refer to it as bad variance. However it's not just us, it seems to be happening to every player, ploppie on up at the same time. Who knows maybe we can come up with a real reason why this happens instead of just voodoo. Let's have some fun....JtMM
That is a pretty much in-depth rave there mate, from someone with a Math-name like yours; slap bang in the middle of a voodoo board... My contribution will not even mention the usual voodoo suspects: the dealer bust card; somebody gotta take a hit for the table; the dealer is due for a bust... and the like. I won't mention the dealer from hell either because Tarzan's told us of his dealer pal who has been there, done that, more than once.
I also won't mention zg's pendulum, good luck charms, amulets and biorythms. None of these things has anything to do with what Mathman is talking about. Either does this last thing I am not going to mention: variance. But Bootlegger is going to mention it. Here is his description from his glossary:
Variance: "This can be determined by subtracting the expected value from each possible outcome in a game or hand, squaring the differences and multiplying each square by its probability of occurring and then summing the total of the product."

Luckily, Boot has a math Professor looking over his shoulder who can explain in simple terms what that means. As for us mere mortals who are a little math-deficient, he lost me on: '...each possible outcome in a game or hand... I'll try to remember that definition, if I ever play in a 7-player table again.

So if variance has nothing to do with it, what does? I'm attempting to answer this with wise quotes from notables down through history...

"I'm going to give 110% on every play. You can't give any more than that." Jimmy Johnson
"Confidence is the feeling you have before you understand the situation." Anon

"I want to make sure everyone who has a job wants a job." GWB
"Suckers have no business with money anyway." Canada Bill Jones
"Luck's always to blame." Jean de la Fontaine
"Dear Lord, help me break even. I need the money." American proverb
"Sometimes a grain of luck worth more than field of knowledge." Charlie Chan

Something there may have helped unlock Mathman's puzzle... If you spot it, let me know. Here is something else that may contain an answer...

29K7J510A349Q8651038Q7410310K52J48AA6Q9K6K9Q48J3J107A57Q6
21057J8J3A6449810J7Q3K8Q2A85K610467A4J59Q6927KK32A5Q31035

A sequence of 104 cards. Is there a clue there anywhere that this sequence could turn out to be part of a 6-deck shoe from the dealer from hell? Or that this could be a 6-deck from hell? :cat:
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#14
OK... I had another one yesterday. I don't like Sundays because they seem to bring all of the "I think I know better's" out but it was mothers day and she wanted to go. The place was pretty crowded but I stumbled across a table with two players on it. The tables at shuffle so I sit down. We begin play and the one player stands on his 15 with a dealer ten. OK not so uncommon but he continues to stand on everything right down to twelve. Finally I had to ask before I colored up and walked away. "Why do you stand on everything?" His answer was so he doesn't take the dealers bust card. I didn't bother asking anything else...JtMM
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#15
Open seat

I would suppose when a person is trolling the bj pits and sees an open seat you never wonder why that seat is always open. That my friend is the seat of doom where no-one that sits there will win a hand only lose. The big tip off is when you sit in it everybody starts to shake their heads. I think of the seat as a mouse trap waiting for the next loser to sit in it and lose. It is quite comical to say the least some of the comments you hear about that seat. blackchipjim
 

RingyDingy

Well-Known Member
#16
its universal really

You can see this same sort of thing apply all over.

Slots players are a great example, you see them hopping from machine to machine, not playing one after someone has a big payout on it, others saying this machine is HOT HOT HOT etc

people pressing buttons in a certain order, i even saw one guy insert/pull his players card 6 times before he played, go figure....

Speak of which, has anyone ever seen the Derren Brown (UK magician guy ) episode where he has about 10 people in a room and they think the actions they are doing are scoring points but its just random?

here is a quick link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDi2NlsA4nI


I think its broken down into a few episodes.

this to me perfectly illustrates everything about confirmation bias, albeit in a very funny way.

Cheers

Ringy.
 

MoneyPlays

Well-Known Member
#17
mathman said:
OK... I had another one yesterday. I don't like Sundays because they seem to bring all of the "I think I know better's" out but it was mothers day and she wanted to go. The place was pretty crowded but I stumbled across a table with two players on it. The tables at shuffle so I sit down. We begin play and the one player stands on his 15 with a dealer ten. OK not so uncommon but he continues to stand on everything right down to twelve. Finally I had to ask before I colored up and walked away. "Why do you stand on everything?" His answer was so he doesn't take the dealers bust card. I didn't bother asking anything else...JtMM
Once I was playing on a cruise ship about 5 years ago. The guy at 3rd base stood on a hard 7 against a dealer 6. This was on a Fun21 game (no, I did NOT know any better then :p) where you could basically split and double and surrender at will. The dealer asked him twice if he was sure he wanted to stand. He said, "Absolutely, I'm not going to take your bust card!" Dealer had a 10 in the hole and pulled a 4 for a 20 that sunk the table. But most of the people at the table told him that's what they would have done! :laugh:
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#18
Free gift

We've come this far in the search for more understanding of the origins of the negative phenomena that manifests in the series of shoes from hell; the dealer from hell that stays like that her entire shift; the table from hell that stays like that through several shifts; and the Death Star Seat from Hell, that nobody wants to sit in, even tho it's a crowded casino. Even the vultures up the back know that is the death seat, as it has already ruined 20-odd unfortunates this shift so far, which is getting near the end, thank the Blackjack Gods.

Then, along comes a hot shot card counter who heard rumors about the death seat and dismisses it with a sniff, as he mumbles something about not believing any of that voodoo bullshit. He has been vulturing and noticed the TC is +3, so he wongs in at seat #4, the Death Star seat, with $50. Imagine his dismay when a whole slug of tens and Aces immediately present but he has 10-5 V D10.

The count is now negative and so he hits and busts with a ten. He departs the table minus $50 amid a round of cheers from the vultures, who encourage vacaters of the death seat. He resumes his v-perch while he tries to figure how best to track the slug he is keeping his eye on.

Ihate17 has given a hint at what is needed here. The curse needs to be broken. Here is my theory as to the reason this happens. Long ago, the casinos got together and imported several Kahunas from Hawaii, some witchdoctors from the African jungles, some sorcerers from Peru and Mexico and some Shamen from ah, somewhere. As a group, they were paid well to place a spell, a curse that favored casinos well over and above the house edge. This is what we are facing.

I will be consulting with Ihate17 over the next few weeks while we round up a much larger, more powerful magic group that will overpower the original curse, and fix it so that the card counter will never again have to put up with this kind of stuff. This noble act we will offer free of charge for those who pay us well. :cat:
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#19
Hell's battlefield

The specialist makes his way to his place of battle. A mercenary of sorts, armed with certain weapons and skills only a few can know or understand. He takes his place, confident in his abilities, ready to do battle. He's surrounded by civilians whom he views as only minor distractions, neither friends nor foes. The battle commences and his enemy is strong, stronger than usual. Quickly the gold uniformed devil goes for his ammunition bunker but the specialist has more. He is not worried, just a minor set back, a little loss.

Round by round the battle continues. Some of the civilians have now become casualties but our specialist has deciphered the code that tells him his enemy is vulnerable. He sends in the heavy artillery, only to have the gold uniformed devil snatch it up like a meaningless spec of dirt removed by a vacuum, the vacuum of the devil. He gets another message from his HQ, his opponent seems even weaker. He drops two larger bombs with confidence that his opponent will falter. The vacuum from hell, disguised by the gold uniform and a pretty face snatches up his two bombs like nothing. The specialist now realizes his opponent is not one to be under estimated. Another two bombs are sent to the devil, only this time it seems god has smiled. Our specialist gets to double the strength of both bombs and observation reveals his opponent is of only five. He's got to win this round, all things are in his favor. He flanks his opponent with two platoons of twenty. He sits back and relaxes a bit, smoke em if you got em he thinks. Suddenly out of the devil's trenches pop another six from the devil's reserve, only to be backed up by a compliment of ten and again the vacuum from hell sucks up the specialist's munitions as if they were meaningless specs of dirt.

Retreat seems the only answer. What happened? Intel told him his opponent was weak however the gold uniformed devil was able to conquer him like a civilian. All of his training, his twelve+ years of experience, his special smart bombs, doubled for maximum effect, had no effect on the devils vacuum. So many battles won like this before only to be belittled like an uneducated civilian this time around. He retreats from the battlefield, disgusted and bewildered. His intel was wrong and his opponent was crafty. Wounded and battle worn, he must live to fight another day.

.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#20
The problem here is very obvious, the solution not so easy

Katweezel said:
. Here is my theory as to the reason this happens. Long ago, the casinos got together and imported several Kahunas from Hawaii, some witchdoctors from the African jungles, some sorcerers from Peru and Mexico and some Shamen from ah, somewhere. As a group, they were paid well to place a spell, a curse that favored casinos well over and above the house edge. This is what we are facing.

I will be consulting with Ihate17 over the next few weeks while we round up a much larger, more powerful magic group that will overpower the original curse, and fix it so that the card counter will never again have to put up with this kind of stuff. This noble act we will offer free of charge for those who pay us well. :cat:

Sorry Katweezel, but it is a known fact to all followers of the Sacred Flow of the All knowing Cards, that the only reason they ever lose is because the Devil himself lives in the shoe and if that shoe is combined on the table with an ASM, you have the double wammy of a Demon living in the shuffle machine.
Now the devil is a teasing, fun loving kind of guy and sometimes he will let those followers of the Flow win but in the end he gets his due (now you know where the comment, the Devil Gets his Due comes from). When it is time for him to collect you experience the table from hell because it is from hell.

Too many of these ignorant followers blame the dealer. The dealer is just an innocent possessed by both the devil and the demon, not unlike the girl in that movie the Exorcist. I swear, I recently was playing with a dealer who could not only turn his head completely in a circle but could turn every 15 and 16 into a 21. In fact, one of the best ways to defeat the devil is to come into the casino with both a Catholic Priest loaded with holy water and a Hassedic Rabbi (so do not play Friday night or Saturday before sundown). If this does not work then try a plumber, they are supposed to be good at changing the Flow of things.

Without taking counter measures you can just watch your money levitate itself from your wallet into the drop box of the devil's agent, the casino.

ihate17
 
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